HVAC Customer Lifetime Value Calculator
What Is a Customer Worth Over Ten Years?
The first ticket is the smallest number in the relationship. Tune-ups, repairs, and the replacement that comes eventually are where the margin is. Put in your numbers and see what a household is actually worth, and what you can afford to pay to win one.
Example numbers loaded. Replace with yours.
Repairs and tune-ups, not replacements.
Across the customer base. Maintenance members are higher.
How long the average household keeps calling you.
Average system replacement.
Share of customers who replace with you before they leave.
After labor, parts, and equipment. Before overhead.
Lifetime gross profit
How to read it.
Lifetime gross profit
Service visits over the years, plus the replacement weighted by how often it happens, times your margin. This is the number to hold in your head when someone quotes you a cost per lead.
Max acquisition cost
Lifetime gross profit divided by three. A common rule for what you can afford to pay to win a customer and still keep the relationship profitable. Compare it to your CAC.
First ticket share
What share of the lifetime the first call represents. For most HVAC shops it is small, which is why judging marketing on first-ticket revenue quietly starves it.
What this calculator leaves out.
On purpose, so you know where the number is soft.
- Retention is the lever
- Every input here is a guess except the ones your job software can give you. Years retained is the one that moves the total most, and it is the one maintenance agreements move.
- Referrals
- A good customer sends you their neighbor. That value is real and it is not in here.
- Discounting
- Money in year seven is worth less than money today. This does not discount, so treat the total as a ceiling.
- Segment
- Maintenance members and one-time repair customers have very different lifetimes. Run it twice if you know both.
The lead cost argument changes here
Owners tell me a lead should cost $40 because that is what it cost in 2019. Then we run this and see that a customer is worth several thousand in gross profit. The right question was never what a lead costs. It is what a customer is worth and what share of that you will spend to win one.
Henry “Hank Hugh” Hernandez, CEO, HVAC Digital Marketing
HVAC Growth Audit. Free.
Want us to run it on your real records?
A calculator works on what you type in. The Growth Audit works on what your call log and job software actually say, by channel, and shows you which of the seven steps between a search and a booked job is leaking.
- Cost per booked job, by channel, from your own numbers
- The step that is leaking, and how many jobs it costs you
- What it takes to move it, in writing if you want it
Start here. Two minutes.
Three questions to start. Your answers stay between us.
Questions owners ask.
What is a typical HVAC customer worth?
It depends entirely on your ticket, how often they call, how long they stay, and whether they replace with you. Two shops in the same town can differ by thousands. Run your own numbers rather than borrowing anyone else’s.
Should I include maintenance agreement revenue?
Yes, as service visits. Members visit more often, stay longer, and replace with you more reliably, which is exactly why the agreement is worth selling even at a thin margin on the agreement itself.
How do I raise lifetime value?
Keep them longer and get them to replace with you. That is follow-up after every job, a maintenance agreement offer on every service call, and a review request that keeps you top of mind. None of it is advertising.
What does it cost?
It depends on the market and what is in the way, and fee is always separate from ad spend so you can see what you are paying for. We put the number in the proposal after the call, not before it.
Do you save what I type in here?
No. The math runs in your browser and nothing is sent anywhere unless you tap the text button, which opens a message you can edit or delete before sending.
Can I just text instead?
Yes. Text the question and I will answer it. No call, no charge. The call exists for the questions that need your numbers in front of both of us.
Now see what your customers are actually worth.
The calculator uses your estimates. The audit uses your job history, and the number is usually higher than the owner guessed.
